The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a report on EV market trends, which suggests that EVs will account for 40% of global new car sales by 2030, up from 15% in 2023, and more than 50% by 2035.
The IEA Director General said: "The global EV revolution is not only not fading, it is moving to a new stage of development...
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on the latest market trends for pure electric vehicles (EVs) on April 23. The report predicts that EVs will account for more than 50% of global new car sales by 2035. The EV market will expand due to lower-priced cars sold mainly by Chinese manufacturers. The condition is that the price of on-board batteries is reduced and the charging infrastructure is improved.
Every April, the IEA publishes its medium - and long-term outlook for the EV market, including plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVS). For the first time, estimates are given up to 2035. 2035 is the year when the European Union (EU) and the U.S. state of California will in principle ban the sale of electric locomotives, including hybrid vehicles (HVS).
By 2030, EVs will account for 40% of global new car sales, up from 15% in 2023, and more than 50% in 2035. By 2030, cumulative sales are expected to increase from less than 45 million units in 2023 to 250 million units, a six-fold increase, and by 2035 to more than 525 million units, a 12-fold increase.
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The report points out that if various countries and regions adopt ambitious EV promotion measures, sales will increase further. It also proposed that EV sales in 2035 will account for two-thirds of total new car sales.
Regionally, China, the world's largest auto market, saw a larger increase. Evs are expected to account for two-thirds of new car sales by 2030 and 85% by 2035. In China, small EVs priced at around $10,000 are becoming increasingly popular. According to the report, about 60 percent of the EVs sold in the Chinese market in 2023 will be priced lower than the engine.
Demand for EVs in the United States is slowing. Tesla said on April 15 that it would cut more than 10 percent of its global workforce. There has been speculation that Tesla will exit the small EV development business.
The IEA pointed out that the United States will implement more stringent exhaust regulations after 2024, and the EV proportion will increase in the medium to long term. By 2035, the EV share in the US market will reach more than 70%.
It is expected that in the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have introduced stricter environmental regulations, the EV share will reach more than 85% in 2035. IEA Executive Director Fati Birol said in an April 23 statement: "The data suggest that EV momentum is continuing. The global EV revolution is not only not waning, it is moving to a new stage of development."
But Japan's EV share is expected to be only 30% by 2035. The Japanese government has set a goal of converting all new cars into "electric vehicles" by 2035, but electric vehicles include not only EVs, but also HVS that use gasoline.
The IEA pointed out that the EV market will expand only if the price of car bodies and on-board batteries is reduced and the charging infrastructure is built through policy support.
In countries other than China, EV prices are 10-50% higher than engine locomotives. Although the price of batteries, which account for more than 30 percent of EV manufacturing costs in 2023, is 14% lower than that in 2022, the purchase price of rare metals such as lithium is likely to rise due to expanding demand and dependence on China for raw material supply.
Expanding the introduction of low-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that do not use cobalt and nickel and a new generation of all-solid batteries are the key to the popularization of EV.
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Europe and the United States are increasingly wary of the influx of low-priced Chinese EVs affecting the operations of domestic manufacturers.
In December 2023, France excluded EVs imported from Asia, including China, from car purchase subsidies. The European Union has also begun a practical investigation into Chinese EV products, and tariffs may be raised in the future.
The United States limited the tax benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to North American-made cars.
The IEA demand forecast takes into account the effect of rising exports from China to countries around the world and downward pressure on EV prices. If Europe and the United States continue to block the inflow of Chinese EV, it will cause the EV market to split, and it is expected that the premise of the popularization of EV prices will be disrupted.
Expanding the construction of charging infrastructure is also a condition. In 2023, public charging devices will increase by 40% to 4 million compared with 2022. The IEA expects that to achieve its 2035 EV sales forecast, charging devices will need to increase sixfold to 25 million. In addition to governments and private enterprises to build infrastructure, the construction of a stable power grid is also facing the issue.
This article is from the wechat public account "Nikkei Chinese website" (ID: rijingzhongwenwang), author: Nikkei Chinese website
